The highlight of the final matchweek of the 2023/24 Premier League season remains the title race showdown between Man City and Arsenal, alongside the race for Europa League and Europa Conference League qualification.
After an eventful season, the 2023/24 Premier League will draw to a close with the matches of Matchweek 38 taking place at 10 p.m. on May 19th. The focus will be on the title race between Man City and Arsenal.
A 2-0 victory over Tottenham midweek helped Man City reclaim the top spot with 88 points from 37 matches, leading Arsenal by 2 points. This means that Pep Guardiola’s men only need to secure a win against West Ham to successfully defend their crown, simultaneously setting a record of winning the title four times in a row without needing to worry about the result of the match between Arsenal and Everton.
For Arsenal, despite losing their destiny control, the Gunners still aim to secure 3 points against Everton and then hope for Man City’s stumble.
In the scenario where the “Sky Blues” draw, they will tie with Arsenal at 89 points (if Arsenal beats Everton) but lose on goal difference (currently, their goal differences are +61 and +60, respectively) and have to surrender the crown to their opponents. Overall, victory remains imperative for both Man City and Arsenal.
After the four Champions League spots have been secured (Man City, Arsenal, Liverpool, Aston Villa), the race for Europa League and Europa Conference League qualification revolves around Tottenham, Chelsea, Man United, and Newcastle, with Tottenham (5th place, 63 points, +10 goal difference) and Chelsea (6th place, 60 points, +13) currently holding significant advantages. Now, Tottenham only needs to defeat bottom team Sheffield United to reinforce their current position and secure a place in the Europa League.
As for Chelsea, “The Blues” only need to avoid defeat against Bournemouth, and if Man United fail to win the FA Cup, they can still clinch a Europa League spot.
Man United may face the most unfavorable situation among the contenders for European spots. The “Red Devils” sit 8th, tied with 7th-placed Newcastle on 57 points but significantly lagging behind in goal difference (-3 and +21). Therefore, they need to overcome Brighton and hope for Newcastle’s slip-up against Brentford to qualify for the Europa Conference League.
Man United can still qualify for the Europa League by defeating Man City in the FA Cup final on May 25th (the 6th-placed team qualifies for the Europa Conference League, while the 7th-placed team walks away empty-handed). However, if the “Red Devils” lose this match and finish 8th in the Premier League, Newcastle will play in the Europa Conference League.
Apart from the title race and the race for European qualification, the relegation battle remains intense heading into the final round. After Sheffield United and Burnley, Luton (18th place, 26 points/37 matches) and Nottingham Forest (17th place, 29 points) will vie to avoid the remaining relegation spot.
However, Luton’s chances of survival are slim due to their significantly poorer goal difference (-31 and -19). A miracle can only occur if manager Rob Edwards’ team convincingly defeats Fulham while simultaneously hoping for Nottingham Forest to suffer a heavy defeat against Burnley.
Predicting the scores for Matchweek 38 of the Premier League:
Man City 2-1 West Ham
Arsenal 3-0 Everton
Liverpool 2-2 Wolves
Chelsea 2-0 Bournemouth
Sheffield United 0-3 Tottenham
Brighton 1-2 Man United
Brentford 1-2 Newcastle
Crystal Palace 2-1 Aston Villa
Luton 2-1 Fulham
Burnley 1-1 Nottingham Forest
